Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence unmet need and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty

摘要

International support for improving access to family planning (FP) services has had a significant resurgence in the past decade. Ambitious, world-wide goals have been constructed by coalitions of governmental and non-governmental agencies. One such goal, colloquially referred to as 120 by 20, aims to increase access to modern contraceptives for 120 million more women by 2020; architects of 120 by 20 included principals from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the United Kingdom Department for International Development, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the United Nations Population Fund [1]. Identified at the inception of this goal, a major barrier to achieving 120 by 20 was the determination of baseline of modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR) in 2012 and ability to track yearly progress [1]. Similarly, the more recently developed sustainable development goal (SDG) 3.7.1 http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/owg.html of increasing demand satisfied, defined as the ratio of mCPR to total contraceptive prevalence and unmet need, requires reliable estimates of FP indicators. To meet those challenges, substantial investments in new measurement instruments [2] and novel model-based estimate methodologies [3, 4] enabled the establishment of a baseline and a methodology for estimating yearly national progress.