Assessing and Predicting the Water Resources Vulnerability under Various Climate-Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin China

摘要

The Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin plays an important strategic role in China’s economic development, but severe water resources problems restrict the development of the three basins. Most of the existing research is focused on the trends of single hydrological and meteorological indicators. However, there is a lack of research on the cause analysis and scenario prediction of water resources vulnerability (WRV) in the three basins, which is the very important foundation for the management of water resources. First of all, based on the analysis of the causes of water resources vulnerability, this article set up the evaluation index system of water resource vulnerability from three aspects: water quantity, water quality and disaster. Then, we use the Improved Blind Deletion Rough Set (IBDRS) method to reduce the dimension of the index system, and we reduce the original 24 indexes to 12 evaluation indexes. Third, by comparing the accuracy of random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) models, we use the RF model with high fitting accuracy as the evaluation and prediction model. Finally, we use 12 evaluation indexes and an RF model to analyze the trend and causes of water resources vulnerability in three basins during 2000–2015, and further predict the scenarios in 2020 and 2030. The results show that the vulnerability level of water resources in the three basins has been improved during 2000–2015, and the three river basins should follow the development of scenario 1 to ensure the safety of water resources. The research proved that the combination of IBDRS and an RF model is a very effective method to evaluate and forecast the vulnerability of water resources in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin.