The Impact of the Social Distancing Policy on COVID-19 IncidenceCases and Deaths in Iran from February 2020 to January 2021: Insights from anInterrupted Time Series Analysis

摘要

Background: In December 2019, a viral outbreak occurred in China,and rapidly spread out worldwide. Due to the lack of immediately availablevaccines and effective drugs, many policy- and decision-makers have focused onnon-pharmacological methods, including social distancing. This study was aimedat assessing the effects of the implementation of this policy in Iran, one ofthe countries most affected by COVID-19. We conducted a quasi-experimentalstudy, utilizing the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) approach.Methods: We collected daily data between February 20, 2020 andJanuary 29, 2021, through governmental websites from 954 public hospitals andhealthcare settings. The Iranian government launched the social distancingpolicy on March 27, 2020. Statistical analyses, including ITSA, were carried outwith R software Version 3.6.1 (London, UK). Results: During thestudy period, 1,398,835 confirmed incidence cases and 57,734 deaths occurred. Wefound a decrease of -179.93 (95% CI: -380.11 to -20.25, P-value=0.078) confirmedincidence cases following the implementation of the social distancing policy,corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -31.17 (95% CI: -46.95 to-15.40, P-value=0.08). Moreover, we found a decrease of -28.28 (95% CI: -43.55to -13.01, P-value=0.05) deaths, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trendof -4.52 (95% CI: -5.25 to -3.78, P-value=0.003). Conclusion: Thegrowth rate of confirmed incidence cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Iran hasdecreased from March 27, 2020 to January 29, 2021, after the implementation ofsocial distancing. By implementing this policy in all countries, the burden ofCOVID-19 may be mitigated.