An Investigation into Unsafe Behaviors and Traffic Accidents Involving Unlicensed Drivers: A Perspective for Alignment Measurement

摘要

Road traffic plays a vital role in countries’ economic growth and future development. However, traffic accidents are considered a major public health issue affecting humankind. Despite efforts by governments to improve traffic safety, the misalignment between the policy efforts and on-ground infringements, distractions and breaches reflect the regulatory failure. This paper uses the Bayesian network method to investigate unsafe behaviors and traffic accidents involving unlicensed drivers as a perspective for the regulatory alignment assessment. The findings suggest that: (1) unlicensed drivers are more likely to have unsafe driving behaviors; (2) the probability of being involved in a severe traffic accident increases when the drivers are unlicensed and decreases in the case of licensed drivers; (3) young drivers are noticeably more likely to engage in unsafe behaviors, usually leading to serious injuries and deaths, when their driving licenses are invalid; (4) women are more likely to engage in right-of-way violations and to have collisions with no serious injuries, contrary to unlicensed men drivers, who are involved in other types of traffic accidents resulting in serious injuries.