Analysis of Traffic Crashes Caused by Motorcyclists Running Red Lights in Guangdong Province of China

摘要

Motorcycles are among the primary means of transport in China, and the phenomenon of motorcyclists running red lights is becoming increasingly prevalent. Based on the traffic crash data for 2006–2010 in Guangdong Province, China, fixed- and random-parameter logit models are used to study the characteristics of motorcyclists, vehicles, roads, and environments involved in red light violations and injury severity resulting from motorcyclists’ running red lights in China. Certain factors that affect the probability of motorcyclists running red lights are identified. For instance, while the likelihood of violating red light signals during dark conditions is lower than during light conditions for both car drivers and pedestrians, motorcyclists have significantly increased probability of a red light violation during dark conditions. For the resulting severe casualties in red-light-running crashes, poor visibility is a common risk factor for motorcyclists and car drivers experiencing severe injury. Regarding the relationship between red light violations and the severity of injuries in crashes caused by motorcyclists running red lights, this study indicated that driving direction and time period have inconsistent effects on the probability of red light violations and the severity of injuries. On the one hand, the likelihood of red light violations when a motorcycle rider is turning left/right is higher than when going straight, but this turning factor has a nonsignificant impact on the severity of injuries; on the other hand, reversing, making a U-turn and changing lanes have nonsignificant effects on the probability of motorcyclists’ red light violations in contrast to going straight, but have a very significant impact on the severity of injuries. Moreover, the likelihood of red light violations during the early morning is higher than off-peak hours, but this time factor has a negative impact on the severity of injuries. Measures including road safety educational programs for targeted groups and focused enforcement of traffic policy and regulations are suggested to reduce the number of crashes and the severity of injuries resulting from motorcyclists running red lights.