The Population-Level Impacts of Excluding Norovirus-Infected Food Workers From the Workplace: A Mathematical Modeling Study

摘要

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis and foodborne disease in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration recommends that food workers infected with norovirus be excluded from the workplace while symptomatic and for 48 hours after their symptoms subside. Compliance with this recommendation is not ideal, and the population-level impacts of changes in food-worker compliance have yet to be quantified. We aimed to assess the population impacts of varying degrees of compliance with the current recommendation through the use of a compartmental model. We modeled the number and proportion of symptomatic norovirus cases averted annually in the US population (using data from 1983–2014) in specific age groups (children aged <5 years, children aged 5–17 years, adults aged 18–64 years, and adults aged ≥65 years) under various scenarios of food-worker exclusion (i.e., proportion compliant and days of postsymptomatic exclusion) in comparison with a referent scenario which assumed that of norovirus-symptomatic food workers and 0% of postsymptomatic food workers were excluded from work. Overall, we estimated that 6.0 million cases of norovirus have already been avoided annually under the referent scenario and that 6.7 million (28%) more cases might be avoided through 100% compliance with the current recommendations. Substantial population-level benefits were predicted from improved compliance in exclusion of norovirus-infected food workers from the workplace—benefits that may be realized through policies or programs incentivizing self-exclusion.