Prediction of I–V Characteristic Curve for Photovoltaic Modules Based on Convolutional Neural Network

摘要

Photovoltaic (PV) modules are exposed to the outside, which is affected by radiation, the temperature of the PV module back-surface, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and other factors, which makes it difficult to test and analyze the performance of photovoltaic modules. Traditionally, the equivalent circuit method is used to analyze the performance of PV modules, but there are large errors. In this paper—based on machine learning methods and large amounts of photovoltaic test data—convolutional neural network (CNN) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network models are established to predict the I–V curve of photovoltaic modules. Furthermore, the accuracy and the fitting degree of these methods for current–voltage (I–V) curve prediction are compared in detail. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the CNN and MLP neural network model is significantly better than that of the traditional equivalent circuit models. Compared with MLP models, the CNN model has better accuracy and fitting degree. In addition, the error distribution concentration of CNN has better robustness and the pre-test curve is smoother and has better nonlinear segment fitting effects. Thus, the CNN is superior to MLP model and the traditional equivalent circuit model in complex climate conditions. CNN is a high-confidence method to predict the performance of PV modules.