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Modelling vertical transmission in vector-borne diseases with applications to Rift Valley fever

机译:用应用到裂谷发烧的向量传播疾病中的垂直传播

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摘要

We present two ordinary differential equation models for Rift Valley fever (RVF) transmission in cattle and mosquitoes. We extend existing models for vector-borne diseases to include an asymptomatic host class and vertical transmission in vectors. We define the basic reproductive number, , and analyse the existence and stability of equilibrium points. We compute sensitivity indices of and a reactivity index (that measures epidemicity) to parameters for baseline wet and dry season values. is most sensitive to the mosquito biting and death rates. The reactivity index is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate and the infectivity of hosts to vectors. Numerical simulations show that even with low equilibrium prevalence, increases in mosquito densities through higher rainfall, in the presence of vertical transmission, can result in large epidemics. This suggests that vertical transmission is an important factor in the size and persistence of RVF epidemics.
机译:我们提出了裂谷热(RVF)在牛和蚊子中传播的两个常微分方程模型。我们扩展了媒介传播疾病的现有模型,以包括无症状宿主类别和媒介中的垂直传播。我们定义基本生殖数,并分析平衡点的存在和稳定性。我们计算基准湿季和干季值的参数的敏感性指数和反应性指数(用于衡量流行性)。对蚊子的叮咬和死亡率最敏感。反应性指数对蚊子叮咬率和宿主对媒介的传染性最敏感。数值模拟表明,即使在平衡流行率较低的情况下,在垂直传播的情况下,由于降雨增加而导致蚊虫密度增加,也可能导致大流行病。这表明垂直传播是RVF流行病的规模和持续性的重要因素。

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