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Interior-Point Methods for Estimating Seasonal Parameters in Discrete-Time Infectious Disease Models

机译:离散时间传染病模型中季节性参数估计的内点法

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摘要

Infectious diseases remain a significant health concern around the world. Mathematical modeling of these diseases can help us understand their dynamics and develop more effective control strategies. In this work, we show the capabilities of interior-point methods and nonlinear programming (NLP) formulations to efficiently estimate parameters in multiple discrete-time disease models using measles case count data from three cities. These models include multiplicative measurement noise and incorporate seasonality into multiple model parameters. Our results show that nearly identical patterns are estimated even when assuming seasonality in different model parameters, and that these patterns show strong correlation to school term holidays across very different social settings and holiday schedules. We show that interior-point methods provide a fast and flexible approach to parameterizing models that can be an alternative to more computationally intensive methods.
机译:传染病仍然是世界范围内对健康的重大关注。这些疾病的数学模型可以帮助我们了解它们的动态并制定更有效的控制策略。在这项工作中,我们展示了内点方法和非线性规划(NLP)公式能够使用来自三个城市的麻疹病例计数数据有效地估计多个离散时间疾病模型中的参数的能力。这些模型包括乘法测量噪声,并将季节性纳入多个模型参数。我们的结果表明,即使在不同的模型参数中假设季节性,也可以估算出几乎相同的模式,并且这些模式显示出在非常不同的社会环境和假期时间表中与学期假期密切相关。我们表明,内点方法提供了一种快速而灵活的参数化模型方法,可以替代计算量更大的方法。

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