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Stylized Facts in Brazilian Vote Distributions

机译:巴西投票分配中的程式化事实

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摘要

Elections, specially in countries such as Brazil, with an electorate of the order of 100 million people, yield large-scale data-sets embodying valuable information on the dynamics through which individuals influence each other and make choices. In this work we perform an extensive analysis of data sets available for Brazilian proportional elections of legislators and city councilors throughout the period 1970–2014, which embraces two distinct political regimes: a military regime followed by a democratic one. We perform a comparative analysis of elections for legislative positions, in different states and years, through the distribution p(v) of the number of candidates receiving v votes. We show the impact of the different political regimes on the vote distributions. Although p(v) has a common shape, with a scaling behavior, quantitative details change over time and from one electorate to another. In order to interpret the observed features, we propose a multi-species model consisting in a system of nonlinear differential equations, with values of the parameters that reflect the heterogeneity of candidates. In its simplest setting, the model can not explain the cutoff, formed by the most voted candidates, whose success is determined mainly by their peculiar, intrinsic characteristics, such as previous publicity. However, the modeling allows to interpret the scaling of p(v), yielding a predictor of the degree of feedback in the interactions of the electorate. Knowledge of the feedback is relevant beyond the context of elections, since a similar interactivity may occur for other social contagion processes in the same population.
机译:选举,特别是在巴西这样的国家中,拥有1亿人口的选民,产生了大规模的数据集,其中包含了有关个人相互影响和做出选择的动力的宝贵信息。在这项工作中,我们对1970年至2014年整个巴西的立法者和市议员比例选举的可用数据集进行了广泛的分析,其中包括两个截然不同的政治体制:军事体制,其次是民主体制。我们通过获得v票的候选人人数的分布p(v)对不同州和年份的立法职位选举进行比较分析。我们展示了不同政治制度对投票分配的影响。尽管p(v)具有常见的形状,但具有缩放行为,但定量细节会随时间从一个选民更改为另一个选民。为了解释观察到的特征,我们提出了一个由非线性微分方程系统组成的多物种模型,其参数值反映了候选对象的异质性。在最简单的情况下,该模型无法解释由投票最多的候选人形成的界限,其成功主要取决于他们独特,固有的特征,例如先前的宣传。但是,建模可以解释p(v)的缩放比例,从而生成选民互动中反馈程度的预测指标。反馈的知识与选举范围无关,因为在同一人群中其他社会传染过程可能发生类似的互动。

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