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Practice and perspectives in the validation of resource management models

机译:验证资源管理模型的实践和观点

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摘要

Quantitative modelling is commonly used to assist the policy dimension of sustainability problems. Validation is an important step to make models credible and useful. To investigate existing validation viewpoints and approaches, we analyse a broad academic literature and conduct a survey among practitioners. We find that empirical data plays an important role in the validation practice in all main areas of sustainability science. Qualitative and participatory approaches that can enhance usefulness and public reliability are much less visible. Data-oriented validation is prevalent even when models are used for scenario exploration. Usefulness regarding a given task is more important for model developers than for users. As the experience of modellers and users increases, they tend to better acknowledge the decision makers’ demand for clear communication of assumptions and uncertainties. These findings provide a reflection on current validation practices and are expected to facilitate communication at the modelling and decision-making interface.
机译:定量建模通常用于辅助可持续性问题的政策维度。验证是使模型可靠和有用的重要一步。为了调查现有的验证观点和方法,我们分析了广泛的学术文献,并对从业人员进行了调查。我们发现,经验数据在可持续性科学的所有主要领域的验证实践中都起着重要作用。可以提高实用性和公众可靠性的定性和参与性方法很少见。即使将模型用于场景探索,面向数据的验证也很普遍。对于模型开发人员而言,对给定任务的有用性比对用户而言更为重要。随着建模者和用户经验的增长,他们倾向于更好地认可决策者对清晰传达假设和不确定性的需求。这些发现反映了当前的验证实践,并有望促进建模和决策界面的交流。

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