Within- and between-pen transmission of Classical Swine Fever Virus: a new method to estimate the basic reproduction ratio from transmission experiments.

摘要

We present a method to estimate basic reproduction ratio R0 from transmission experiments. By using previously published data of experiments with Classical Swine Fever Virus more extensively, we obtained smaller confidence intervals than the martingale method used in the original papers. Moreover, our method allows simultaneous estimation of a reproduction ratio within pens R0w and a modified reproduction ratio between pens R'0b. Resulting estimates of R0w and R'0b for weaner pigs were 100 (95% CI 54.4-186) and 7.77 (4.68-12.9), respectively. For slaughter pigs they were 15.5 (6.20-38.7) and 3.39 (1.54-7.45), respectively. We believe, because of the smaller confidence intervals we were able to obtain, that the method presented here is better suited for use in future experiments.