Prediction and Analysis of CO2 Emission in Chongqing for the Protection of Environment and Public Health

摘要

Based on the consumption of fossil energy, the CO2 emissions of Chongqing are calculated and analyzed from 1997 to 2015 in this paper. Based on the calculation results, the consumption of fossil fuels and the corresponding CO2 emissions of Chongqing in 2020 are predicted, and the supporting data and corresponding policies are provided for the government of Chongqing to reach its goal as the economic unit of low-carbon emission in the ‘13th Five-Year Plan’. The results of the analysis show that there is a rapid decreasing trend of CO2 emissions in Chongqing during the ‘12th Five-Year Plan’, which are caused by the adjustment policy of the energy structure in Chongqing. Therefore, the analysis and prediction are primarily based on the adjustment of Chongqing’s coal energy consumption in this paper. At the initial stage, support vector regression (SVR) method is applied to predict the other fossil energy consumption and the corresponding CO2 emissions of Chongqing in 2020. Then, with the energy intensity of 2015 and the official target of CO2 intensity in 2020, the total fossil energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Chongqing in 2020 are predicted respectively. By the above results of calculation, the coal consumption and its corresponding CO2 emissions of Chongqing in 2020 are determined. To achieve the goal of CO2 emissions of Chongqing in 2020, the coal consumption level and energy intensity of Chongqing are calculated, and the adjustment strategies for energy consumption structure in Chongqing are proposed.