黄河流域季节降水变化特征分析

摘要

The analysis of the annual and decadal characteristics and spatial distribution of seasonal precipitation in the Yellow River basin based on the observed daily precipitation of 106 representative weather stations from 1960 to 2010 was conducted. And also it analyzed the variation trends of precipitation by using the Mann⁃Kendall test, precipitation change trend rate and accumulative anomalies. The results show that on the spatial distribution, the distribution of seasonal precipitation is more or less the same as the annual precipitation and there are differences with season variety in local areas. On the temporal distribution, after 1990s, the change trend of precipitation in the basin is obviously changed. The trend of decreasing is greater than that of the increasing trend and most of the trend of seasonal precipitation in the future is contrary to the past. The variation of the whole basin with the seasonal precipitation sequence is different, but still relatively concentrated and it is proved that there is a possible link between the regional seasonal precipitation variability.%利用黄河流域106个代表气象站1960—2010年逐日降水资料，分析了黄河流域季节降水的空间分布以及年内年际分配特点，并采用Mann⁃Kendall法、降水倾向率和累计距平法等方法对季节降水的变化趋势和变异情况进行了研究。结果表明：空间上，黄河流域各季节降水分布与年降水分布大体相同，但随着季节变化局部地区存在差别；时间上，20世纪90年代后流域降水变化趋势明显改变，季节降雨减少趋势的强度大于增加趋势的，且大多数站点季节降水序列未来趋势与过去趋势相反；各区域同季节降水序列变异点位置虽各不相同但相对集中，说明季节降水变异可能存在内在联系。