山东省南四湖流域2020年需水预测研究

摘要

This research predicted the water requirements of the South⁃Four⁃Lake basin in Shandong Province by using gray system model, multiple linear regression analysis and water quota law method. The results show that there are certain limitations in gray system model, meanwhile there is better accuracy in multiple linear regression analysis and water quota law method which can be used to predict water requirements for the South⁃Four⁃Lake basin in Shandong Province. The prediction result of the water demand of South⁃Four⁃Lake basin in Shandong Province is 5.592 4-6.393 6 billion m3 , which is reasonable.%利用灰色系统、多元线性回归分析和用水定额法对山东省南四湖流域2020年需水量进行了预测。结果表明：灰色系统预测模型预测需水量时误差较大，多元线性回归分析和用水定额法预测结果精度较高。经过预测，山东省南四湖流域2020年需水量为55．924亿～63．936亿m3。