几种水文频率曲线参数估计方法的比较

摘要

水文频率曲线参数估计多采用计算机优化适线法，然而该方法在拟合经验点据时将特大值序列与一般洪水序列等同对待，仅在数学上寻找拟合误差最小的曲线，不符合水文学中历史洪水的克－闵假定。通过对比矩法、权函数法、概率权重矩法、线性矩法、目估适线法、计算机优化适线法6种方法在柴石滩水文站水文频率的计算结果，表明：在一般洪水部分，各方法得出的结果相近，但在特大值部分，计算机优化适线法较其他方法得出的设计值大得多。在推求特大洪水设计值时应从理论上继续深入探讨，不宜简单用计算机优化适线法进行计算。%Computer optimized fitting method is widely used in parameter estimation of hydrological frequency curve recently. But the method considering the extreme value series is the same as the normal flood sequence, only searching for the fitting curve with the minimum error on mathematics, which doesn't conform to the K⁃M assumption about historical flood in hydrology. The paper compared the difference of hydrological frequency result in Chaishitan Hydrological Station computed by moment method, weight function method, probably weighted moment method, line moment method, estimation of fitting line method and computer optimized fitting line method. The results indicate that various method has the similar result on the normal flood sequence, but computer optimized fitting line method has the bigger result on the extreme value series. So it should be in⁃depth discussion when infer the design value of the large flood, instead of only using the computer optimized fitting line method simply.