为确保地下水封洞库工程的安全,需利用监测数据分析和掌握地下结构的安全性状,并利用已有监测数据预测未来结构变化. 基于时间序列分析理论,并以地下水封洞库变形监测效应量为研究对象,试图建立地下水封洞库变形的时间序列预测模型,在介绍模型原理的基础上,分析了监测数据平稳处理、模型识别、参数估计的方法和步骤. 通过工程实例证明,采用时间序列分析预测模型对地下水封洞库围岩变形进行预测是可行的.%In order to guarantee the safety of underground water-sealed cavern, it is necessary to analyze the monitoring data and master the safety properties of the underground structures, and further predict the future changes according to the data. On the basis of the time sequence theory, and taking the deformation monitoring effect of the underground water-sealed cavern as the research object, we establish the deformation prediction model of the underground cavern in time sequence. On the basis of explaining the model principle, we analyze the smooth processing of the monitoring data, model recognition as well as the parame-ter estimation. The engineering practices show that the prediction of water-sealed cavern rock deformation by the established time sequence based model is feasible.
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