三峡水库实时调度水文气象预报应用风险及控制

摘要

To quantify the effects of hydro-meteorological forecasting error on the reservoir real time operation, the Three Gor-ges Reservoir is taken as object. Based on the analysis results of the error of the historical forecasting data, the assumed inflow process is used as the input of the flood regulation calculation model, in which the inflow process is superimposed with the corre-sponding forecasting error of different probability. The reservoir level targets below the risk control point under different forecast period and error assurance rate were analyzed, based on the analysis, the risk control strategy for real-time operation of Three Gorges Reservoir is proposed. The research could provide reference for scientific operation of reservoirs.%为量化水文气象预报误差对水库实时预报调度的影响,以三峡水库为例,基于其历年水文气象预报信息的误差分析成果,假定入库过程,并叠加对应不同概率的预报误差,以此作为水库调洪演算模型的输入. 分析了不同预见期、不同保证率水文气象误差条件下,不超过风险控制点的库水位指标,提出了三峡水库实时预报调度风险控制策略,可为水库科学调度提供参考.