Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity based on binary index method and reduction index method

摘要

Based on the regional water resources carrying capacity（WRCC） evaluation principles and evaluation index system in the National Technical Outline of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early Warning（hereafter referred to as the Technical Outline）,this paper elaborates on the collection and sorting of the basic data of water resources conditions,water resources development and utilization status,social and economic development in basins,analysis and examination of integrity,consistency,normativeness,and rationality of the basic data,and the necessity of WRCC evaluation.This paper also describes the technique of evaluating the WRCC in prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the District of the Taihu Lake Basin,which is composed of the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin.The evaluation process combines the binary index evaluation method and reduction index evaluation method.The former,recommended by the Technical Outline,uses the total water use and the amount of exploited groundwater as evaluation indices,showing stronger operability,while the latter is developed by simplifying and optimizing the comprehensive index system with greater systematicness and completeness.The mutual validation and adjustment of the results of the above-mentioned two evaluation methods indicate that the WRCC of the District of the Taihu Lake Basin is overloaded in general because some prefecture-level cities and city-level administrative divisions in the Taihu Lake Basin and the Southeastern River Basin are in a severely overloaded state.In order to explain this conclusion,this paper analyzes the causes of WRCC overloading from the aspects of basin water environment,water resources development and utilization,water resources regulation and control ability,water resources utilization efficiency,and water resources management.