黄河三角洲地区城市化测度与水环境系统耦合关系

摘要

By building a comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization and water environment, using entropy method, mean square error method and AHP, We calculated the weight of each indicator in urbanization system and water environment system in Yellow River Delta between 1995 and 2012, and find the key indicator in the system.By comparing the trends of urbanization and water environment system, we conclude that the impact of the urbanization on the water environment state is significant at the initial stage and weaker in the later stage.On the contrary, water environment have a little effect on the development of urbanization over the whole process.The coupling coordination degree model of the urbanization and water environment of Yellow River Delta shows that during 1995-2012 , the urbanization system and water environment system were experienced moderate disordered development with the lowest coupling degree from 1995 to 1998 , disordered development with conflicts from 1998 to 2002 , barely balanced development with coordination from 2002 to 2007 , and well balanced development with harmony from 2007 to 2012, respectively.Since 2007, the development level of the urbanization in Yellow River Delta keeps high.Water environment pollution prevention and control measures play important role in region, so making the water environment maintaining a good state.%构建了黄河三角洲地区城市化与水环境综合评价指标体系，采用熵值法、均方差法和层次分析法确定1995—2012年黄河三角洲地区城市化与水环境系统指标权重，得出系统内主要影响因子。城市化与水环境系统演变趋势对比分析表明，城市化初期对水环境状态影响较大，后期则相对较弱，反之，水环境对城市化的胁迫作用始终较小。黄河三角洲地区城市化与水环境耦合协调度计算结果表明：1995—2012年间，黄河三角洲地区城市化与水环境分别经历了中度失调的低度耦合期（1995—1998年）、失调的拮抗期（1998—2002年）、基本协调的磨合期（2002—2007年）和良好协调的高度耦合期（2007—2012年）。2007年之后，黄河三角洲城市化发展水平较高，水环境污染防治措施发挥作用明显，使水环境维持良好状态。