QD软件、FRATAR软件在青岛至荣成城际铁路客运量预测中的应用

摘要

研究目的:青荣城际铁路地处我国山东半岛地区,连通青岛、烟台、威海三市,路网作用辐射整个山东半岛沿海地区及华北、中南地区.在运用QD软件分析现状客流出行特征,同时利用FRATAR软件进行客运量合理预测.研究结果:现状既有铁路客流主要为短途及少部分长途客流,青荣城际铁路主要承担城市间及新增的长途客流.%The purposes of study: the Inter-city Railway from Qingdan to Rongcheng Locates in the Shandong Peninsula in China, and it connects Qingdao, Yantai, Weihai. The effect of road net radiates whole coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula, North China and Central South region. The characters of current passenger travel were analyzed by using QD software, and the passenger capacity was reasonably predicted by using FRATAR software at the same time. The results of study: the railway passenger flow is mainly for short-distance and a small number of long-distance. The Inter-city Railway from Qingdac to Rongcheng mainly undertakes passenger flow between cities and the new added long-distance passenger flow.