基于改进灰色理论的短期风速预测

摘要

Wind power has the potential of competition with conventional power generation. Real-time wind power forecast has very high demand for short-term wind speed forecast. Based on the study of wind speed forecast of gray model, the paper takes advantage of unbiased gray prediction model and modified residual error gray prediction model in short-term wind speed forecast. Test results show good performance in precision in comparation with conventional method and the case based on neural network.%　　风电具有与常规发电竞争的潜力，实时的风电预测对风速短期预测有相当高的要求。在基于灰色模型的风速预测研究基础上，利用无偏灰色预测及改进残差的灰色预测进行短期风速预测。实际算例表明，与常规灰色预测及基于神经网络的风速预测结果相比，改进算法的结果在精度上有明显的提高。