基于偏最小二乘的泰国菠萝出口影响因素实证研究

摘要

Based on the partial least (PLS) method, for example of the factors that effect on Thai pineapple exports, we select variables by variable importance in projection and extract principal components via cross validation, then establish the partial least square models. We analyze the impact of each indicator on Thai pineapple exports deeply. Studies have shown that Thai pineapple exports are closed related to the raw material prices and the speed of production and processing in factories, and the effects of partial least squares regression fit better than ordinary least squares regression.%本文采用偏最小二乘回归模型（PLS），以泰国菠萝贸易为例，通过变量投影重要性准则筛选自变量，由交叉有效性提取主成分，进而建立偏最小二乘回归模型。深入分析了各指标对泰国菠萝出口贸易的影响。研究表明泰国菠萝出口与原料价格及工厂生产加工速度密切相关，并且偏最小二乘回归的拟合效果优于普通最小二乘回归。