矿井绝对瓦斯涌出量的新陈代谢GM（1,1）预测

摘要

院简要论述了瓦斯涌出量预测方法，结合国内实际，提出灰色模型预测方法，并根据该矿过去十年的瓦斯绝对涌出量资料建立了新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型。通过模型的求解，给出预测结果，并对结果进行检验。而且将未来5年的瓦斯绝对涌出量预测值用折线图画出，分析了其总体趋势并给出大体的建议。%The paper briefly discusses the gas emission prediction method, puts forward the grey model prediction method combined with domestic actual, and according to the material of the absolute gas emission quantity of the mine in the past decade, sets up the GM (1, 1) metabolism model. By solving the model, predictions are given, and the results are tested. The paper draws the predicted value of the absolute gas emission quantity over the next five years, analyzes the overall trends and gives general advice.