基于马尔可夫过程的快速路OD矩阵估计方法

摘要

为得到城市快速路网络的OD矩阵,引入马尔可夫理论.运用吸收马尔可夫过程对快速路网络进行建模分析,给出相应求解算法推导路段流量,小区OD矩阵表达式,并介绍了运用MATLAB软件进行矩阵求解的方法.最后进行了算例分析,利用VISSIM仿真,通过布设线圈检测器,对OD矩阵估计模型及算法进行精度评价.结果显示,模型可很好地拟合路段流量,并能精确估计OD矩阵.%To develop the origin-destination matrix of urban expressway network, this paper applies the theory of Markov Process to model expressway network, and introduces the related algorithm that estimates traffic flow at road segments and OD matrix, as well as the matrix solution using MATLAB. Finally, the paper presents an example to assess the accuracy of OD matrix estimation and the algorithm based on VISSIM and vehicle detector data.The evaluation results show that the model is effective to obtain traffic flow at road segments and OD matrix.