城市轨道交通客流量实时预测模型

摘要

城市轨道交通客流预测方法主要有基于调查的客流量预测方法和基于实际流量的事后统计方法.针对目前尚无根据实际客流量数据预测各个站的客流量的模型,提出了利用实际到站的客流量数据,通过建立灰色模型和马尔科夫链,预测下一站实际客流量的实时预测模型.试验仿真表明,该模型能较好预测实时客流量.%The passenger flow forecast method in urban rail transit is based on the investigation of the forecast of passenger flow and the later statistics of actual flow volume.Since there is no any forecast model of traffic volume at each station ever established according to the actual traffic data,an algorithm by using the traffic data of the actual arrival is proposed,through the establishment of a gray model and Markov chain,a real-time forecasting model of the actual flow volume at the next station is set up.Simulation results show that the model can achieve a good prediction of the real-time traffic.