旅游业是否具有贫困减缓效应一直是政府和各种发展机构关注的焦点问题.旅游业与贫困减缓关系的实践认知领先于与此相关的经验研究,主要是因为旅游业对贫困的减缓效应始终未得到相对客观的评估.文章基于中国1999—2014年省级面板数据,以旅游业发展水平作为转换变量,利用面板平滑转换回归模型技术,对旅游业和贫困减缓之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验.研究发现,旅游业可以显著地减缓贫困,所以旅游业可被视为目的地减缓贫困的有效产业工具.另外,旅游业与贫困减缓之间的关系存在非线性的旅游业门槛效应.具体而言,旅游专业化与旅游减贫效应显著负相关,而旅游人次比则与旅游减贫效应显著正相关,同时,旅游专业化对贫困的减缓效应要远大于旅游人次比对贫困的减缓效应.因此,贫困地区可以通过避免旅游产业收入漏损和增强旅游经济活动频率来保持旅游减贫效应处于高影响状态.%According to the Poverty Monitoring Report of Rural China 2015, and based on China's latest poverty line standards, the poverty incidence of rural China has decreased from 97.5% in 1978, with the Reform and Opening Up, to 7.2% in 2014, for a decreasing amplitude of up to 90.3%, and the scale of rural poverty population has been reduced to 70.17 million. How to eliminate poverty is a serious challenge faced by government organizations, non- governmental organizations and international institutions. One concern is that the tourism industry, as a global industry currently growing very rapidly, is gradually coming to be regarded as an important industrial tool by which to enhance trade participation, promote economic growth, and reduce poverty in many developing countries, especially the least developed countries (LDCs). Regardless of whether"tourism industry specialization"or"tourists as population proportion"is taken as the proxy variable of tourism industry level, the PSTR model estimation results show that China's tourism industry has a significant effect on poverty reduction, and tourism industry can still benefit the poverty population through the"trickle-down effect". In addition, the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction has a nonlinear threshold characteristic, which is reflected by the fact that there is a significant negative relation between tourism industry specialization and the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction. This means that the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction is at a high regime with the improvement of tourism industry specialization; however, when tourism industry specialization exceeds the threshold value, the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction turns to the low regime, so that, on the contrary, tourism industry specialization will weaken the marginal contribution of tourism industry to poverty reduction. The"tourists as population proportion"has a significant positive relation with the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction, which means that the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction is in a low regime with the increase of the"tourists as population proportion", and the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction turns to a high regime when the"tourists as population proportion"exceeds the threshold value. Therefore, the"tourists as population proportion"will gradually enhance the marginal effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction. At the same time, we also find that the effect of tourism industry on poverty reduction is much greater than that of the"tourists as population proportion". The research conclusion of this paper is clear and profound. First, the tourism industry effectively reduces poverty in China, thus the tourism industry can be seen as a strategic tool for poverty alleviation and development promotion in poverty areas, and the poverty reduction through tourism can also become a choice mechanism by which to explore numerous ways to reduce poverty in poverty areas. Second, the poverty reduction effect of the tourism industry exists in the form of a nonlinear threshold, which indicates that the contribution degree of the tourism to the poverty reduction is not the same in different development stages of the tourism industry, thus it is necessary to reasonably adjust the tourism industry policy and configure the tourism component resources, in order to keep the poverty reduction effect off tourism in a high influence state.
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