Using the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2015,this paper estimates the price elasticity of total electricity demand to simulate the effect of carbon tax in China′s electricity industry and provides the suggestions for emissions reduction policy.Based on empirical analysis,it finds that,as Chinese economy steps into the new normal,price elasticity decreases,and the adjustment of industrial structure,especially the change of internal structure of industry,affects electricity demand and consumption structure.Since electricity demand is insensitive to price,carbon tax plays a limited role in reducing carbon emission.To achieve reduction targets,the government needs to levy high carbon tax,which is difficult under current price level.Therefore,considering emissions reduction effect and difficulty of implementation,it is not a good choice to introduce carbon tax at current stage.Compared with carbon tax,deepening supply-side structural reform and decreasing the share of fossil fuel-fired electricity seem to be a more effective way to achieve emissions reduction target.At present,the government should put a high priority on adjusting generation mix.%利用2003-2015年中国的省际面板数据,通过估计电力需求函数模拟碳税的政策效果,为电力行业减排政策的制定提供了参考.结果表明:随着中国经济进入新常态,电价对电力需求的影响减弱,产业结构特别是工业内部结构的调整对电力需求和电力消费结构产生一定影响;由于电力需求对电价变动不敏感,因此碳税的减排效果有限;为实现减排目标,政府需要征收高额碳税,但这在现有的电价水平下较难实施;从减排效果和实施难度两个方面来看,当前暂不开征碳税的减排政策具有一定合理性;与碳税相比,加快供给侧结构性改革、降低火力发电比重,能够更有效地实现减排目标;现阶段政府应将调整电源结构作为节能减排工作的重点.
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