Damage loads and dangerous locations should be predicted before static test in advance in order to avoid disastrous event. In this paper, the failure prediction for a civil wing is investigated based on a combination of the engineering empirical method with finite element method. Its dangerous locations, damage loads and margin of safety are obtained. The data of wing non-destructive test is then used to estimate the reliability of the analysis. The “margin of test safety” is compared with “margin of analysis safety”, the results show that the failure prediction is reliable and could meet practical engineering requires.%为避免飞机结构试验的灾难性破坏,一般要求在试验前对试件的破坏载荷与部位进行预估。采用工程法和有限元法相结合的手段对民机机翼结构进行了破坏预估分析,给出了危险部位及其破坏载荷和安全裕度。此外,又根据该机翼非破坏试验的测量数据,对所预估的可靠性进行了分析认证。采用对“计算”的安全裕度与“试验”的安全裕度对比的方法,阐明了所预估结果的可靠性与偏安全性,可满足工程实用要求。
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