山西省土地资源人口承载力多尺度时空差异分析

摘要

以人粮关系为基础，利用土地资源人口承载力（LCC）和土地资源人口承载力指数模型（LCCI），从全省、分区、分县3个空间尺度定量评价山西省2003～2012年土地资源人口承载力的时空变化。结果表明：（1）2003～2012年全省人口承载力呈增加趋势，其中2009年以后 LCCI 逐年降低，但人粮关系仍处于超载状态。（2）分区格局：人口承载力晋南＞晋北＞晋中，晋南人粮关系处于平衡有余状态，发展潜力较大，而晋中地区一直处于严重超载状态，人粮关系紧张；十年间各区 LCC 均呈增加趋势，但增加幅度晋南＞晋中＞晋北。（3）分县格局：人口超载区主要分布在晋中大部分县域，粮食盈余区主要分布在晋东南地区及晋北部分县域，但2008～2012年比2003～2007年盈余的县域增加了18个，人粮关系有所改善。%On the basis of man -grain relationship,using the land carrying capacity (LCC)and land carrying capacity index (LCCI)models,from 3 spatial scales,province,region and county,the spatial -tem-poral variation of land carrying capacity was quantitatively evaluated in Shanxi from 2003 to 2012.The results showed that:(1)The provincial land carrying capacity showed an increasing trend from 2003 to 2012.Since 2009,the LCCI decreased.However,the increasing population resulted in lacking of grain.(2)The land car-rying capacity was in the order of Jinnan >Jinbei >Jinzhong.Jinnan kept balance between population and grain,and had great development potential.But Jinzhong had been seriously overloaded.The LCC improved in these regions in 10 years,and the increase range was Jinnan >Jinzhong >Jinbei.(3)The overloading coun-ties mainly located in Jinzhong.The food surplus counties mainly distributed in the north and southeast of Shanxi.The number of man -grain balancing county increased by 18 from 2003 ~2007 to 2008 ~2012, which indicated that the man -grain relationship was improved.