基于面板VAR模型的农业用水与农业经济增长关系研究

摘要

基于2002-2014年中国省级面板数据,通过构建农业用水量与农业经济增长的面板VAR模型,并进行单位根检验、协整检验和模型估计与分析,研究了农业用水量和农业经济增长之间的内在关系.结果表明:东部、中部和西部的农业用水量和农业经济增长之间存在着长期协整关系;此外,由于存在个体差异,不同地区农业用水量和农业经济增长之间的关系存在差异,东部地区是负相关、中部地区是正相关、西部地区存在正相关也存在负相关.建议通过优化产业结构和技术水平来提高水资源利用效率,控制和减少农业用水资源的消耗量,并且不同地区因地制宜,采取不同的水资源政策.%Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2002 to 2014,through establishing panel VAR model between agricultural water and agricultural economic growth and carrying out the unit root test,co-integration test and model estimation and analysis,the internal relations between agricultural water and agricultural economic growth were studied.The results showed that there were long-term co-integration relationships between the agricultural water and agricultural economic growth in the eastern,middle and western area,and the relationships existed differences in different areas because of individual difference.The agricultural water and agricultural economic growth was negatively correlated in the eastern,but positively correlated in the middle,and there were both negative relationship and positive relationship in the western.We suggested to optimize the industrial structure and technical level to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources,control and reduce the consumption of agricultural water and conduct different water policies in different regions.