In the light of the problems in distribution system, such as the diversity of device type and the lack of real-time measurement data,a state estimation method for the distribution system based on optimization model is proposed. First the equipment components in the distribution network are modeled according to the characteristics of the distribution system itself. Then virtual zero injection measurement and load pseudo-measurement model are established to make up for insufficient measurement data. Finally ,unscented Kalman filter method is combined with Holt-Winter pseudo-measurement modeling method to realize the real-time tracking and forecasting of system state, obtaining the load pseudo-measurements according to historical load data based on the Holt-Winter model and introducing the real-time data and pseudo-measurements into the Kalman model to get the estimated value. The test results based on IEEE-33 node distribution system model show that the state estimation method has high confidence and feasibility.%针对配电系统设备种类多样和实时测量数据匮乏的问题,提出了一种基于优化模型的配电系统状态估计方法.首先,根据配电系统自身的特点,对配电网中各设备元件进行建模;然后,建立零虚拟注入量测和负荷伪测量模型来弥补量测数据不足的问题;最后,使用无迹卡尔曼滤波方法和Holt-Winter伪测量建模方法实现系统状态的实时跟踪预测.该方法先根据历史负荷信息和Holt-Winter模型获取负荷的伪测量值,然后将实时数据和生成的伪测量值一并用于无迹卡尔曼状态估计模型,得到估计值.在IEEE-33节点配电系统模型上的测试结果表明,该状态估计方法具有较高的可信度和良好的可行性.
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