技术创新和技术转移对区域可持续发展的动态影响分析--以北京市为例

摘要

在分析技术创新和技术转移两因素影响可持续发展机制的基础上，利用 VAR 模型、协整方程，以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法，实证研究技术创新和技术转移对北京区域可持续发展的动态影响过程。结果表明北京市技术创新、转移活动不仅在短期内有利于增强区域可持续发展能力，而且与之存在长期的动态均衡关系；技术转移对于北京可持续发展能力的影响既是短期、正向的，同时也是长期、有效的，时滞效应较小，但贡献程度还不高；技术创新则贡献较大，但时滞也大。最后根据研究结论，提出政策建议。%Technology innovation and technology transfer were important factors affecting the regional sustainable develop-ment.Based on the analysis on the impact mechanism of the two factors on sustainable development,this paper did an em-pirical study on the process about their dynamic impact on sustainable development in Beijing area with VAR Model,Cinte-gration Equation,Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Method.The results showed that technology in-novation and transfer activities in Beijing not only enhanced the capacity of regional sustainable development in a short term,but also had a long -term dynamic equilibrium relationship with it.The effects of technology transfer on sustainable development in Beijing were positive and consistent either in short or long term.However,the contribution degree of it was low.While the technology innovation had an greater contribution to Beijing’s sustainable development but also greater lag effect.Finally,the paper came up with some related policy suggestions according to conclusions.