一种基于多尺度均线位置关系的移动通信网流量预测方法

摘要

Both of the mobile call traffic and the stock price forecasting form the angle of statistical view been have some common character. Thus, an experiential method of stock price forecasting, namely the relative position of multi-scale average lines, is reformed and imported into the traffic forecasting. Firstly, the reformed method chooses scales of average lines, which optimal reflect the change direction and base volume character. Secondly, these average lines are fitted with some interpolating means. After comparing the lines each other, the change tend-ency and volume are predicted by analyzing the relative position of the lilies. Some primary experiments illustrate that the measure is feasible and valuable.%从统计学的角度观察得出结论,移动通信网数据流量与股票价格预测具有一些相同的特征.基于此,提出将多尺度均线相对位置的经验型股票估值方法运用到移动通信网流量预测中.方法首先根据流量特征选定均线尺度,继而利用插值方法对曲线进行平滑处理,使之适合均线变化方向和量化计算.最后通过均线之间的位置关系来预测流量的变化趋势和变化量.初步仿真实验证明,该方法是有效、可行的.