岩溶地区地表水库与地下水有较为密切的水力联系,合理预测岩溶水库渗漏程度对工程设计与施工具有重要指导意义.以云南省某水库为例,在分析库区岩溶水文地质条件的基础上,利用USGS开发的ModelMuse对水库扩建后受影响区域进行地下水数值模拟,并结合UCODE对渗透系数及入渗强度等参数进行敏感度分析.得出栖霞茅口组灰岩(P1q+m)的渗透系数等四个敏感度较高的参数.这些参数在合理取值范围内存在多个值会对预测水库渗漏量及渗漏等级产生较强影响.因此,在利用数值法预测水库的渗漏等级时,首先应对研究区做全面细致勘察,提升参数的准确性与可靠性.%Reservoir on surface in karst areas has relatively close hydraulic connection with groundwater.Anticipating the leakage degree of reservoir in karst area reasonably has important guiding significance to engineering design and construction.Taking a reservoir in Yunnan Province as an example, the ModelMuse was used, which is developed by USGS, to implement groundwater numerical simulation in areas affected by the reservoir expansion and combined the UCODE to implement the sensitivities analysis for parameters like hydraulic conductivities and infiltration intensities based on the analysis on karst hydrogeology conditions in reservoir regions, which reached conclusions that multiple possibilities that could have deeper influence on the reservoir leakage amount and degree anticipation exist in the current reasonable value range of four parameters with higher sensitivities, including the hydraulic conductivity in P1q+m limestone stratum.In consequence, when using the numerical method to anticipate the reservoir leakage degree, reconnaissance in comprehensive and detailed way in priority to increase the accuracies and reliabilities of parameters should be take.
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