基于混合t Location-Scale分布模型的光伏功率随机性分量波动性分析

摘要

光伏波动性是影响光伏功率稳定并网的关键问题之一.为了更准确地对光伏功率随机性分量进行定量描述,文章首先利用周期图法提取功率的周期性分量,然后提出了混合t Location-Scale分布模型,并对光伏功率随机性分量进行拟合.验证了文章所提模型在拟合光伏功率随机性分量波动性上的优越性,讨论该模型在不同采样时间间隔、 不同地区的有效性和适用性.并以某地区光伏电站群实测数据为例,验证了混合t Location-Scale分布模型对随机性分量波动性拟合效果的优势.%The fluctuation of photovoltaic power is one of the key issues that affect the stability of the grid connected photovoltaic power system. Firstly, the periodic component of power is extracted by periodogram method, and then the mixed t Location-Scale distribution model is used to fit the random component of PV power. The superiority of the proposed model in characterizing the fluctuation of random components of photovoltaic power is verified, and the validity and applicability of the proposed model under different sampling time intervals and different regions are discussed. Taking the measured data of a photovoltaic power station in an area as an example, the superiority of the mixed t Location-Scale distribution to the fluctuation of random components is proved.