浅谈几种常用电量预测方法

摘要

There are many factors affecting power consumption forecasting, such as region economy,policy,climate and so on,has the uncertainty of these factors, there are also random,increases the difficulty of forecasting the amount of electricity. This paper introduces the method of electricity elasticity coefficient,power output efficiency method,regression method,analysis method, gray prediction method and other commonly used power,precision and applicability of several methods through the analysis of actual case,and provide decision support for power supply enterprises.%电量预测的影响因素较多，例如地区经济、政策、气候等，这些因素中有确定性的，也有随机性的，增加了电量预测的难度。本文介绍电力弹性系数法、电量产出效益法、回归分析法、灰色预测法等常用电量预测方法，通过实际案例分析几种方法的预测精度和适用性，为供电企业提供决策支撑。