基于变压器马尔可夫状态评估模型和熵权模糊评价方法的风险评估技术研究

摘要

为建立有效的电力变压器设备风险评估方法，针对变压器故障机理的复杂性和不确定性特征，提出了基于状态检修和马尔可夫过程的变压器全态状态评估模型。利用分指标研究变压器缺陷严重度，结合变压器分部位故障频率计算模型，采用熵权模糊计算量化变压器设备风险等级，构建设备风险评估矩阵，给出了一种新的变压器运行风险评估方法。仿真程序实例计算结果表明，所提方法能够准确计算变压器各组成部分的风险值，并获得针对性的维修策略，变压器风险评估结论是准确、有效的。%To build an effective assessment method for the risk of electric power transformers, the full condition model of transformer based on condition-based maintenance (CBM) and Markov Process is established, considering the complexity and uncertainty of transformer fault. The research method of classified index is used for confirming the severity of transformer defects. Combined with the calculation model for subcomponent fault frequency, entropy-weighted fuzzy method is adopted to quantify the serious degree. Based on the above research the assessment matrix is established. Then a new assessment method for the risk of electric power transformers is given. The simulation program is compiled, and a case is analyzed by the risk assessment technology. The calculation result concludes the risk value and maintenance strategy. Empirical results show that the approach proposed is available and effective.