目前学界对未来气候变化趋势做了两种观点完全相反的预判。其中，气候变暖的趋势对世界地缘政治及其安全的影响是很大的。气候变暖造成北极解冻速度加快，北极航道通航时间日益延长使俄罗斯整个北线破天荒地面临更大的安全压力，它将改变俄罗斯原有的三面防御而无“后顾之忧”的国防结构。北极航道通航时间延长，也将极大地改变欧亚大陆及北极航道沿岸国家乃至印度洋、太平洋的物流版图。同时，北极航道通航时间的延长，将使苏伊士运河的地缘政治作用部分转移至白令海峡，与此相应，世界大国的地缘政治冲突密集区也将由南至北转移到北太平洋区域。俄国北线与日本东线在世界地缘格局中的战略地位上升将使中国成为俄国和日本的战略后方。届时台湾地区在美国、日本等地缘战略中的地位将会下降，中国东部安全边界会进一步向东拓展，台海统一的条件将水到渠成，南海问题解决的条件也将更加成熟。另一方面，海平面上升也会使海水向中国腹地侵入，这将导致中国东部海域纵深加大，并对中国海防造成极为巨大的压力。%At present, the academic circles have made two opposite predictions on the future trend of cli-mate change, in which the trend of global warming has a great influence on the world geopolitics and its se-curity. Climate warming accelerates the thaw of glaciers in the Arctic, and the extension of Arctic navigation time makes the Russian north line face the epoch-making greater safety pressure, which is to change the o-riginal three-direction defense structure without threat from the north. The extending of Arctic navigation time will greatly change the logistics layout of Eurasian continent, the Arctic coastal states, and even the India Ocean and Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, it will partially transfer the geopolitical role of Suez Canal to the Bering Strait, and the focus of geopolitical conflict among world's major powers will move from the south to the North Pacific. The rise of strategic position of the north of Russian and the east of Japan in the global geopolitical pattern will make China a strategic rear area for Russia and Japan. Then the position of Taiwan region will decline in the geostrategic consideration of nations such as United States, and Japan, and China's eastern security border will be further extended to the east. As a result, the reunification of Taiwan and the solution of the South China Sea issue will be feasible. On the other hand, the rising sea level will make the sea water flow into the hinterland of China, which will increase the strategic depth of the eastern coast of China, and China's coast defense is to confront greater pressure.
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