近60年来广西北部湾气候变化及其适应研究

摘要

Study on the adaptability of regional climate change is an important content of regional sustainable development.The data about temperature,rainfall and sea level changes in coast of the Beibu Gulf in Guangxi in recent 60 years were collected,meanwhile,methods of Wavelet analysis,Mann-kendall were used to analysis the climate change characteristics.The results show that:Annual average temperature increases significantly,and the peak of monthly mean temperature appeares in June-August,which are consistent with the variation trend of global average temperature,but the average annual rainfall trend is not obvious.The period of May to October is the flood season.The mean temperature and mean precipitation have short period oscillation with 4-6 years and long-period oscillation with 12-16 years.The average temperature mutation year may be 1993 or 1995,while the average annual rainfall may be 2001 or 2007.The mean sea level in 2007-2015 was higher than the annual sea level by 62.44 mm;Rising sea level results in serious consequences such as coastal erosion,storm surge and wetland loss.It was suggested that human beings should adapt to climate change in the aspects of ecology,production,life and management.%区域气候变化的适应研究是区域可持续发展的重要内容.文章通过收集近60年广西北部湾沿海地区的气温、降雨量和海平面变化等数据,采用小波分析、M-K检验等方法,分析该区域的气候变化特征,结果表明:年平均气温上升趋势明显,月平均气温峰值出现在6-8月,与全球平均气温变化趋势一致;年平均降雨量变化趋势不明显,5-10月是洪季;平均气温和平均降雨量存在4～6年的短周期振荡和12～16年的长周期振荡;平均气温突变年份可能是1993年或1995年,年平均降雨量的突变节点可能是2001或2007年;2007-2015年的平均海平面均高于常年海平面,平均高出常年海平面62.44 mm,海平面上升造成海岸侵蚀、风暴潮增加和湿地损失增大等严重后果;建议在生态、生产、生活和管理等方面提高人类对气候变化的适应能力.