城市规模、城市化率与碳排放关系研究--基于近半世纪161个国家的数据

摘要

The effect of urbanization on environment is the comprehensive results of city size and urbanization rate , and neither city size nor urbanization rate can completely reveal the process of internal mechanism of urbanization on environment. Using a panel data (1960-2009) of 161 countries and a two-way fixed effect model,this paper decomposes the effects of urbanization on environment into city size and urbanization rate to reveal the effect of change of the population distribution in urban and rural area and the structural change of city with different size. The result shows that,theoretically,there are optimal city size and ur-banization rate which are favorable to the environment;in order to reduce carbon emissions , it is not wise to simply argue that the priority should be given to small or large cities. With the carbon emission constraint ,the right way of urbanization is to bal-ance the city size and urbanization rate,which should become an important principle of new-type urbanization.%城市化的环境效应是城市规模扩大和城市化率提高的综合结果，仅以城市化率或者城市规模都不能完整揭示城市化过程影响环境的内在机制。本文利用近半世纪（1960～2009年）161个国家的面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型，把城市化对碳排放的影响分解为城市化率和城市规模两个因素，揭示了城市化过程中人口城乡分布和城市内部结构变化对环境的影响。研究表明：理论上存在对环境最有利的城市规模和城市化率；从减少碳排放的角度，城镇化发展不能简单地说优先发展中小城镇，或者优先发展大城市，基于碳排放约束的城市化路径应该实现城市规模和城市化率的平衡，这应该成为新型城镇化的一个重要原则。