秦皇岛地区地震活动特征及其未来地震危险性

摘要

We study the seismicity feature,historical earthquake activity and the effects of the 1976 Tangs-han great earthquake to the Qinghuangdao area,analyze the characteristic of the historical moderate and strong earthquakes in this area combining with tectonic characteristics.The result shows that there may exist tectonic background of moderate and strong earthquake risk in the area and the seismic risk probabili-ty in the future of the study area is calculated using the maximum likelihood method.%利用秦皇岛地区的地震活动特征、历史地震活动和唐山地震后对本区的影响 ,分析了历史上在秦皇岛地区发生过的中强地震特征 ,并结合秦皇岛地区的构造特征 ,认为该区域未来有发生中强地震的地震活动构造背景 ;并结合最大似然法进行分析 ,给出该地区的未来地震危险性概率.这对认识该地区的构造活动具有重要意义.