通过对集疏运网络流量的经济相关性、分布非均质性、动态性等特征的分析.指出港口集疏运网络流量既受腹地货源量、港口竞争等经济因素的影响,又受通道费用、网络容量等物流因素的影响.建立了港口集疏运网络流量的双因素两阶段预测模型:第一阶段考虑宏观经济发展趋势、腹地GDP、外贸进出口总额、港口建设投资额等经济因素,利用统计回归方法建立腹地货源量与港口吞吐量的预测模型；第二阶段考虑通道费用、网络流量等物流因素,在给定货源量与港口吞吐量的基础上,建立基于用户流量——费用均衡的网络流量分配模型.%The analysis of economic relevance, distribution heterogeneity and dynamics of flow in collecting-distributing networks reveal that the flow in a port collecting-distributing network is affected not only by economic factors such as hinterland cargo volume, port competition etc. But also by logistics factors such as channel expenses, network capacities etc. A two-factor two-stage forecasting model of the flow in a port collecting-distributing network is set up. In its first stage, the economic factors such as macroeconomic development trends, hinterland GDP, total import and export and investments in port construction etc. Are considered and a forecasting model of hinterland cargo volume and port throughput is formed by using statistics regression method. In the second stage, the logistics factors such as channel expenses, network capacities etc. Are considered and a network flow distribution model based on the balance between flow and cost for users is formed under the condition of given cargo volume and port throughput.
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