基于“综合赋权”复合模糊物元的重庆市综合灾害模糊风险评价

摘要

综合灾害风险是当前灾害研究领域中的热点和核心议题之一。灾害风险评价是综合灾害风险研究的重要基础环节，厘定风险并摸清成因，可为综合灾害风险管理提供科学依据。在区域灾害系统分析的基础上，以重庆市38个区县作为基本评价单元，以公开资料和政府统计数据作为主要的数据来源，基于“R=f（ h）× f（ v）”的综合灾害风险概念模型，根据“科学性、系统性、独立性和可操作性”原则，构建了反映致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、灾损敏感性和防灾减灾能力四个方面的“重庆市综合灾害模糊风险评价指标体系”；使用集成层次分析法（ AHP）和熵权法（ EVM）的“综合赋权法”为指标体系赋权；在上述基础上采用“复合模糊物元（ FME）”模型对重庆市各区县综合灾害模糊风险构成要素及整体风险进行了定量研究，并对灾害风险成因进行了初步分析。研究得出结论：重庆市致灾因子危险性整体水平略微偏高，承灾体易损性整体水平较低，综合灾害模糊风险整体水平居中；渝中区、涪陵区和渝东北的城口县、开县、云阳县、奉节县各类灾害发生及造成损失的可能性较大，是未来防灾减灾工作的重点。%Integrated disaster risk is one of the core topic in the current disaster research,Integrated disaster risk as-sessment is the core aspect of the study in Integrated disaster risk. Determining the risk and to found out the cau-ses,can provide scientific basis for the integrated disaster risk management. On the basis of analysis on the regional disaster system,Public and government available statistics been used as data sources,38 districts and counties as basic unit. A preliminary disaster risk evaluation index system is established according to the principles of scientif-ic,systematic,reliable and simple. This index system reflect elements of risk:hazard,vulnerability,exposure,sensi-tivity ,coping capacity in each unit respectively;index weight empowered by"Synthetic Method". Conception mod-els of comprehensive risk established as "R=f( h)× f( v)",fuzzy matter-element model has been adopted. Then through integrated disaster risk fuzzy quantitative assessment and sorting,reasons for the Composition and spatial differences of disaster risk been explained. Finally,main conclusions has been drawn according to the analysis of the results:1. Average hazard risk level of Chongqing is moderately high. 2. Average vulnerability level of Chongqing is lower. 3. The average integrated disaster risk level of Chongqing is moderate,while spatial differences exist within the counties and districts. Yuzhong District,Fuling District,and Chengkou County,Kaixian County,Yu-nyang County and Fengjie County located in northeast Chongqing stands high integrated disaster risk,meanwhile they are the focus of disaster prevention and mitigation implement in the future.