随着当前城市化水平的不断提高,人口“乡一城”转移的规模变得越来越大,城市居民对住宅和公共基础设施也提出了更多新的要求,从而在一定程度上增加了对建设用地的需求.在高需求的拉动下,不仅住宅地价会发生相应的变化,而且住宅地价的变化也会对城市规模的扩张产生一定程度的引致效应.本文基于城市规模扩张的相关理论与研究成果,构建了一个反映住宅地价变化与城市规模扩张间关系的计量经济模型,并利用中国大陆48个典型大中城市2000-201 2年的面板数据进行实证检验.结果显示,在一定范围内住宅地价的上涨会显著推动城市规模的扩张,但随着住宅地价的持续上升,其对城市规模扩张的作用将呈现“倒U型”的变化规律.此外,在处于不同城市化发展水平的城市中,城市化水平较高的城市,住宅地价上涨对城市规模扩张的影响弹性越大;且随着城市化水平的提高,住宅地价持续上涨对城市规模扩张的负向抑制作用也会越明显.最后论文从完善城市土地市场尤其是住宅地价管控的角度,提出了引导城市规模有序扩张的相关政策建议.%The improvement of the current urbanization level with more and more people moving to cities makes the urban residents have more requests for houses and public infrastructure,which to some extent gives rise to the great demand for construction land in the urban areas.Driven by this high demand,price of the residential land will change accordingly,which would have important impact on urban expansion.Based on theories and previous studies of urban expansion,we construct an econometric model to test the impact of the changing residential land price on urban expansion,using the panel date of 48 representative sample cities in Mainland China from 2000 to 2012.The results show that the early rising residential land prices will significantly push forward the expansion of cities,but then the role of the rising price in urban expansion will present an "inverted U" shape change when the price continue to rise.Moreover,the higher the level of urbanization of the city,the greater the effect of elastic of residential land price increasing on urban expansion,and with the improvement of the level of urbanization,it would be more obvious that the rising residential land prices have negative effect of the city expansion.This study proposes relevant suggestions about how to have better control of the expansion of the cities in China by improving the urban land market,especially the residential land price.
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