基于缓冲算子修正的新维无偏灰色模型的洞室围岩位移预测

摘要

洞室围岩位移预测是保证施工安全以及工程质量的重要措施.文章针对洞室围岩变形具有时间序列的单调增长性和随机动态性等特征,基于无偏灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的构建理论,引入指数型弱化缓冲算子来消除围岩位移原始数据序列所受的随机干扰,同时结合新信息优先的原理,提出了一种基于缓冲算子修正的新维无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型对围岩位移进行预测并将该模型应用于旁多水利枢纽工程洞室围岩位移时序预测中.结果表明,该模型具有精度高、科学可靠的特点,为洞室围岩位移预测提供了新的途径.%Predictions for the displacement of surrounding rock is important to ensure safe high-quality construc-tion. In light of the characteristics of monotonous growth and randomness of time series regarding the deformation of surrounding rock, an exponential buffer weakening operator is introduced to eliminate the random effect on the origi-nal data series of rock mass displacement based on the theory of a GM (1,1) unbiased grey forecasting model. A buf-fer operator revised UBGM (1,1) metabolic unbiased grey model is put forward to predict rock mass displacement and is applied to the Pangduo key water conservancy project. The results show that the model is highly precise and reliable, thus providing a new approach for displacement prediction for surrounding rock.