基于灰色预测模型的我国心脑血管疾病死亡率预测

摘要

The modeling fitting and prediction analysis on mortality of cardio⁃cerebrovascular disease in China is proceeded with grey forecasting model GM(1,1),which provides scientific basis to effectively determine the emphasis of prediction and control work,and reasonably formulate the prevention and control measures for cardio⁃cerebrovascular disease. The mortality of cardio⁃cerebrovascular disease in China from the year 2003 to 2012 is selected as the research object,and the mortality of cardio⁃cerebrovascular disease in China from the year 2013 to 2020 is predicted by grey forecasting model GM(1,1). The prediction ac⁃curacy of the forecasting model is checked by posterior error,and evaluated by small error probability p,variance ratio c,error q comprehensively. Results of modeling analysis show that the mortality of cardio⁃cerebrovascular disease is increased year by year,and the mortality of heart disease is increased more obviously while the mortality of the cerebrovascular disease is in⁃creased smoothly. The grey system theory is well applied in mortality forecast and analysis. The mortality of cardio⁃cerebrovascu⁃lar disease in China should be remain high in the next few years. Disease prevention and monitoring departments should do bet⁃ter in prevention and control work to further promote the medical and health level in China.%运用灰色预测模型GM（1，1）对我国心脑血管病的死亡率进行建模拟合和预测分析，为心脑血管病防控工作重点的有效确定及防控措施的合理制定提供科学依据。以全国2003—2012年10年间的心脑血管病死亡率为研究对象，采用灰色预测模型GM（1，1）对2013—2020年的全国心脑血管病死亡率进行预测，利用后验差检验，通过小误差概率p值，方差比c值，误差q值，综合评价模型的预测精度。建模分析的结果表明，全国心脑血管病死亡率呈逐年上升的趋势，其中，心脏病死亡率上升速度较快，而脑血管病的死亡率上升速度相对平缓。灰色系统理论可以很好地运用到死亡率预测分析方面，未来几年我国心脑血管病死亡率仍居高不下，疾病预防与监控部门应做好防治工作，进一步提升我国的医疗卫生水准。