综采工作面上覆岩层垮落高度T-S模糊预测模型研究

摘要

In this paper the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the factor weight of three kinds of typical caving heights of“low, medium and high” through the analysis of the main factors influencing the caving height of the overlying strata. A T-S fuzzy system was obtained according to the fuzzy partition of the discourse universe of various factors and a new T-S prediction model for the caving height of the overlying strata in the fully mechanized working face was established. With this model, the caving heights of the overlying strata in the fully mechanized working faces in Zhenchengdi, Wangzhuang and Duerping mines were calculated, the calculated results were respectively 16. 463 3, 18. 6887 and 16. 463 7 m, and the relative errors were respectively 0. 88%, 3. 42% and 8. 31%, which indicated that this prediction model has higher precision.%通过分析影响综采工作面上覆岩层垮落高度的主要因素,借助层次分析法确定垮落高度“低、中、高”3种典型情况的因素权重,结合各种因素论域的模糊划分得到T-S模糊系统,建立了一种新的综采工作面上覆岩层垮落高度T-S模糊预测模型。利用该模型分别对镇城底矿、王庄矿、杜儿坪矿综采工作面上覆岩层垮落高度进行了计算,结果为16．4633、18．6887、16．4637 m,相对误差分别为0．88%、3．42%、8．31%,表明该预测模型具有较高的精度。