Based on the data from meteorological observation stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2008, the yearly average climatic potential productivity of grain crops (winter wheat and summer maize) is calculated by the phase correction method, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of climatic potential productivity of grain crops are analyzed by the decomposition method of the empirical orthogonal function. The results show that there were obvious intcr-annual fluctuation and regional difference in climatic potential productivity of grain crops. The productivity in a rich harvest year was 3 to 9 times of that in a poor harvest year for winter wheat and 2 to 3 times of that for summer maize. The area of high productivity of grain crops was in the south part of Shandong Province with better hydro-thermal conditions and low productivity was in the east coastal area of the Shandong Peninsula. The annual variation of the yields was consistent with that of climatic potential productivity. The yields of grain crops, especially for summer maize, were affected remarkably by climatic condition in growth season in Shandong Province. There was good spatial consistence in climatic potential productivity of grain crops in the whole province. The grain crop productivity fluctuated due to unstable monsoon climate. Regional complementarity of grain production was relatively poor in Shandong Province%根据山东省1961-2008年的气象资料,利用逐级订正法计算了山东省冬小麦和夏玉米等主要粮食作物的气候生产潜力,并进一步采用经验正交函数分解方法,探讨了其时空变化特征.结果表明:山东省冬小麦及夏玉米的气候生产潜力存在有明显的年际波动和空间差异,其中冬小麦优、劣年景气候生产潜力相差3～9倍,夏玉米相对较小,为2～3倍；全省冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力的高值区位于水热条件匹配较好的鲁南地区,低值区在半岛东部沿海地区；冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力与实际单产的年际变化基本一致,山东省粮食产量,特别是夏玉米产量的年际波动受作物生长期间气候条件影响较大；全省冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力在空间上具有较好的一致性,区域互补性较差.
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