“20110901”温带风暴潮过程天气形势分析及数值预报研究

摘要

对2011年9月1日在渤海发生的一次较强温带风暴潮过程的成因及发展情况进行了深入的研究,并对此次温带风暴潮的预报情况进行了较为详细的数值研究分析和总结.从数值预报的结果来看,两套温带风暴潮数值预报模式都表现出较好的预报能力,特别是对于此类移动速度较为稳定的温带系统,预报时效可以延长到24h左右.通过总结近10年来我国渤海典型温带风暴潮过程的致灾特点发现:冷空气和低压配合对渤海特别是渤海湾产生的温带风暴潮灾害性影响不容小觑,夏半年时更要注意中尺度对流天气叠加在气旋天气系统上对灾害的放大作用.%The paper makes a case study to the typical "20110901" extratropical storm surge occurred in the Bo-hai Sea. Based on two different storm surge forecast models, both of them show a good ability to forecast the development of the extratropical storm surge. Meanwhile, for those weather systems moving at a stable speed, the effective forecasting lengths of time intervals could be extended to 24 hours. According to the analysis of the characteristics of extratropical storm surge during the last ten years in the Bohai Sea, it is found that the combination of cold air and low pressure could generate a disastrous storm surge most possibly in the Bohai bay. Especially in late summer, the effect of disaster could be intensified due to the mesoscale convective band superimposed on the cyclonic scale weather system.